UK Retail Sales

AUgust 17th, 2006 04:30 EST /DST


We have UK retail sales coming out.

expected number is 0.2, if we get o.5 or higher, we BUY GBPUSD, -0.1 we sell GBPUSD

Trade setup for this week (week of July 23 )

Please See This Page First!!

Any comments or questions?

Sunday

• 9:30 PM AUS PPI

i will not trade this release.
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Monday july 24th

• 8:30am CAN Retail Sales m/m

Forecast: 0.3%

I'll be looking for a 0.2%-0.3% deviation from forecast

Long USDCAN if Sales are 0.1 or lower%
Short USDCAN if Sales are up 0.5% or higher

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results:
+17 pips -Long USDCAD after worse than expected retail sales (-0.6%)
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Tuesday july 25th

• 4:00am E-12 Current Account

Dont look for any big movement on this, if it happens it happens. This one is an experiment
for me. In other words, no high expectations

Forecast: 1.1B

Long EURUSD if Current Account is 1.5B or higher.
Short EURUSD if -0.3B or less

I will be observing the JPN Trade Balance at 7:50Pm to see how it correlates with the charts
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Wednesday july 26th




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Thursday july 26th

• 8:30am USA Durable Goods Orders

Concensus:1.9%

I'll be looking for a 1.2% deviation

Long EURUSD/GBPUSD if 0.7% or less
Short EURUSD/GBPUSD if 3.2% or more

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• 10:00am USA New Home Sales

Previous: 1.23M
Forecast: ~1.16M

Long EURUSD/GBPUSD if 1.0M or less
Short EURUSD/GBPUSD if 1.23M or more

I dont expect nothing much from this trade so i will
be trading half as much as i usually do
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Friday july 27th

• 8:30 AM US:Gross Domestic Product

Previous: 3.1%
Forecast: 3.5%

Long EURUSD/GBPUSD if Gross Domestic Product 2.8% or Less
Short if 3.7% or more



Results for the Week

GDP on friday came out worse than expected, about 2.5% growth.

i made +23 pips off that report on eur, and 44 off GDP

+ 17 pips from CAD retail sales, couln't catch all the movement got in a second or two late, missed out on about 20 pips.

Consumer confidence was not mentioned above, but i made pips off it. +31 pips

total of pips for week: 115 pips
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Key Economic Data

Visit this post first to understand how to trade these

KEY ECONOMIC REPORTS LIST FOR USA
with TYPE 1 being strongest

TYPE 1
- Non-Farm (This one is erratic but predictable)
- Trade figures
- TIC Treasury International Capital
- Conference Board Consumer Confidence
- Current account
-Advance GDP

TYPE 2
- Personal Income and Outlays
- FOMC announcement
- Michigan final consumer sentiment
- NAPM Chicago
- Retail sales
- CPI
- Durable goods
- Philly fed survey
- Michigan Preliminary Consumer Sentiment
- FOMC Minutes

TYPE 3
- Industrial production
- ISM manufacturing
- ISM non-manufacturing
- Leading Indicators
- PPI Producer price index
- Weekly Initial claims

KEY ECONOMIC REPORTS FOR THE UK


TYPE 1
- CIPS Manufacturing PMI
- Industrial Production
- Housing figures
- Trade balance
- CPI
- BOE Quarterly Inflation report
- Retail sales
- Current account
- GDP

TYPE 2
- Nationwide house price index
- CIPS Services PMI
- Halifax House price Index
- MPC interest rate decision
- PPI
- RICS housing price index
- MPC minutes
- GFK Consumer confidence


TYPE 3 - not advised
- Industrial production
- ISM manufacturing
- ISM non-manufacturing
- Leading Indicators
- PPI Producer price index
- Weekly Initial claims

KEY ECONOMIC REPORTS FOR CANADA

TYPE 1
- Monthly GDP
- Labour force survey
- Trade figures
- Retail sales
- BOC interest rate decisions

TYPE 2
- CPI
- Monthly survey of manufacturing
- Industrial capacity utilization rate
- Monetary policy report and update

TYPE 3- - not advised
- Balance of Payments
- Business conditions survey manufacturing

(from tom YeoMans)

Trade setup and result for Week of July 17th

Monday, 17th
i will be trading at
5:00am E-12 June CPI EURUSD Long: <=2.4, Short >=2.6
9:15am US industrial production Long :EURUSD if 0.2% or less, short if 0.7% Or more
watch out for Capacity Utilization. if these values are a -ve for the USD, exit the
industrial trade above.

------
Results
Sold GBPUSD at 2:30 GMT 1.8200, TP at 1.8180 (20 pips)
Sold EURUSD 1.2536, TP at 1.2527 result of this trade. (9 pips)

Tuesday, 18th
i will be trading at 4:30 am
for GBPUSD:
4:30am UK June CPI Long >0.5 (0.6, 0.7 etc) | Short <-0.2 (means -0.3, 0.4 etc) 4:30 am UK June RPI Long >.6 (0.7, 0.8) | Short <-0.2 (means -0.3, 0.4 etc) trade either of them or both

for EURUSD, GBPUSD
8:30am the US Producer Price Index ex Food and Energy comes out
long if -0.1 or less, short if 0.3 or greater

Results
>>>I overslept for the GBP trade. Darn alarm was set for 5:30 instead of 4 :(

>>>8:30am >>Did not Trade. Trigger not met

Wednesday, 19th

5:00am E-12 Trade Balance EURUSD Long if -0.9 or less Negative (-0.8 for example ), short if -1.5 or more Negative

8:30 USD CPI excl. Food and Energy m/m Short if 0.3 or More, Long if 0.1 or less

Results
>>>5:00am >>>Did not Trade

>>>8:30am >> Sold for 23 Pips


Thursday, 20th

4:30am UK retail sales GBPUSD Long if Retail sales 0.6 and greater SHORT if <0.4>

Results
>>>Did not Trade>>>> in less that 3 seconds after the news it already sprung 30 or so pips. I entered late and suffered. had to make it up off the 100+ movement during bernanke testimoney

Friday, 21st

7:00am Canadian CPI coming out

Long: <= -0.1
Short: >= +0.6


Results
>>>Long USDCAD>> +26 pips

Total For Week
+78 pips

How to trade the news the REAL way

Hello Trader, the reason your are on this page is because you have either been trading signals based on indicators, technical analysis and /or Expert advisors and you are looking a better alternative.

Some of these Technical analysis signals work, some others dont.
Some are profitable 50% of the time or more, others are loosers.

The truth is people, Technical analysis is only good enough when u are using it with Foundamental Analysis/economy news. Trading Technical analysis is almost trading blindly as a single economy report can break resistance/support /trend or whatever line you maybe watching.

I started out trading the forex using Technical analysis (TA) after a few lessons from a DVD i bought for $600.

To cut a long story short, my TAs did not work out. I was winning some trades but loosing even more.

My self confidence was low, and i felt like quiting quiting the forex until one day, i discovered the Power of Economic News Releases.

One of my mentors had his first loosing trade yesterday in 8 Weeks!!!

Wouldn't you like to be THAT person?


Lets re-think what the forex market is

The FOREX or Foreign Exchange market is the largest financial market in the world, with an estimated volume of more than $1.5 trillion daily, dealing in currencies. Unlike other financial markets, the Forex market has no physical location, no central exchange. It operates through an electronic network of banks, corporations and individuals trading one currency for another. ...

In short, one currency in the pair is traded against the other in the pair according to how strong or weak the other one is

for example, EURUSD pair. This pair is trading EURO vs US dollars.

on a EURUSD chart if the EURO goes up agaist the USD, the chart will point up, vice versa if the USD strengthens against the EURO.

What really drives the market

The primary factors influencing exchange rates include the balance of payments, the state of the economy, implications drawn from chart analysis as well as political and psychological factors.

Economic data report is the major mover of them!

The REAL Trading Factors

The top factors that have a major market impact on a regular basis are:

• Employment data
  
• FOMC meetings
• US Federal Reserve Chairman's testimoy
• Trade balances
• GDP
• ECB rate decisions
• Consumer Price Index
• Retail sales

rest of these and their implications are here

More importantly, There is a link on this blog right here that you can use to measure the magnitude and importance of these reports. You could also download ax XL file that shows the magnitude of these reports here but if you should ask which of these are traded the most, then that would be

NonFarmPayroll
retail sales
cpi
durable goods
gdp
trade bal
tics

Trading these Factors

To trade these factors My way you first need an economic calendar and a news source.

some calendars can be found at forexnews , Forexfactory, EventPak,and Dailyfx.
Try them all and compare data as concensus may vary amoung them

news sources can be found in various trading platforms like MGforex and coesfx. Juter,st open a demo account with them ( or a real one ) and use the news they offer in the platform.

The faster the news source, the better so i use a source from my partner who signed up with bloomberg, this source is very fast and i am sure u would love it based on how we gonna trade.

The Strategy

step 1. Review economic calendar and pic out the most important movers for the day.
Forexfactory tells u this using color codes, if they are red, it means maximum potential volatility.

step 2. Identify the time of the trade you are going to make
The calendar should show the time when the data will be released which is the time you will
be trading.

step 3. Identify the previous and the concensus for the Economic data and look at the chart to tell how price would move if the data is better, worse, or just as expected.

This is the only time you should use technicals in this strategy, just to tell how much

step 4. Setup your trade plan

An example would be to Short the GBPUSD if:
the US trade balance previous was -$65.0B and the Market expects (concesus ) -$67.0B and the Actual came out to be -$62.0B. This is way, way off the concesus and is a thumbs upsurprise which is good for the dollar.

this plan would look like this in sumary:
previous: -$65.0B
concensus: -$67.0B
Long -> GBPUSD if US trade balance -$68.0B or less negative
Short -> trade balance is -$66.0 or more positive


this is how u should setup your trade plan. You must also be aware of conflicting reports like for example if a Industrial production and Manufactoring production values dont both mean a short or a long, then dont trade as the values conflict and the currency is ambiguous

Step 5. Trade that plan!!

You will get into the trade EXACTLY when u see the figures come out, dont hesitate, or else u are screwed. Stay in only as long as the charts tell you or before a retracement is complete so that you dont loose your pips.

I personally only stay in my trades for about 2 minutes max, AVG of 30 seconds

Lesson finish, happy trading